The theoretical approach

Theories of translation have shed some light into this elusive human activity. And yet, unlike some scientific fields where a new innovation is often critically reliant upon a new theory, translation has traditionally been a discipline in which practice has led theory rather than the other way around. As all practitioners will agree, it is possible to translate without having any knowledge of translation theories as such. So far, translation theorists seem to have concentrated on analyzing how one translates in order to gain understanding of the translation process for academic and training purposes, and with the objective of ultimately devising a better method.

This objective is worthy and is beginning to benefit language engineering by providing a theoretical basis for how humans perform translation. However, what is increasingly needed by the language industry is a prospective (instead of retrospective) approach to providing understanding of where rapidly evolving IT and the resultant business environments are leading the industry. However, the dearth of research to address this question seems to point to a widening academia-industry divide in understanding the research needs of the language business. As a result, the whole of the localization industry, for example, seems to have grown on its own wisdom without the benefit of exploiting the insight offered by translation studies. What, then, is the best approach to cater for the real research needs of the industry?

Quantitative versus qualitative approaches

Fry (1998) suggests in the above article that the industry needs reliable market research which provides information on market size, relevant trends and competitors. This sounds straightforward enough, yet factors such as the "chronic fragmentation and small average unit size of the industry" and lack of "agreed industry standards and methodologies for testing [yet to mature language technology] systems" complicate the provision of such information, as pointed out by Fry. Furthermore, as Schäler (1998) suggests, with the dynamics of the localization industry involving constant change, "even the results of a highly professional survey could be outdated soon after publication". It seems that while "figures" are important, in many surveys their accuracy and validity are, for a variety of reasons, too questionable to be used as the primary basis of business decisions regarding future strategy.

Given the drawbacks of the quantitative approach to language industry research, the author suggests an alternative, qualitative tool based on future scenarios.

Scenario planning

The whole reason for acquiring market data is to enable the industry (or individual businesses) to plan for the future. The recent surge in interest in so called scenario planning (see Schwatz, 1996; Van der Heijden, 1996) results in part from the failure of forecasting, particularly in relation to technological developments. Scenario planning has a long history, beginning with its applications by the military, and with strategic studies in the 1950s by the Rand Corporation (The Futures Group, 1994) in the USA. An example often quoted is Kahn and Wiener's (1967) seminal work using scenarios, The Year 2000. Scenario analysis has since evolved from the "predict-and-control" rationalistic approach, based on projecting the most likely outcome, to a searching process that seeks "enhanced understanding of the changing structures" relying on qualitative causal thinking rather than probability (Van der Heijden, 1996). While forecasting seeks one answer, scenario planning has people ask the crucial questions, thus stretching their mental models of the future and inducing insight.

Although often criticized as lacking in "scientific approach", there is increasing support for the validity and usefulness of the scenario-based methodology. It has been applied internationally by both public and private sectors among various industry groups (Schwatz, 1996). The increasing application of scenarios seems to come from the fact that they recognize uncertainty and complexity in analyzing the future, as opposed to forecasting methods which tend to "box in" uncertainties and assume that there is one right answer (Van der Heijden, 1996). Scenarios follow the principles of futures research, which "do not…aim primarily at producing predictions of future events; their aim is rather to provide an overall picture which is relevant to the problem at hand" (Schwarz, Svedin & Wittrock, 1982).

Scenarios for the language industry

So, what can scenario planning do for the language industry? Scenarios are expressed in narrative form with carefully designed plots to highlight the significant elements. Each story is based on a different set of assumptions so that a range of outcomes can be shown. In this way, scenarios challenge the current perception of the future.

A good example to illustrate their application is a recent study carried out by General Motors (Barabba, 1998) on alternative scenarios for future transportation aimed at helping develop their strategies. GM found that the rapidly changing IT landscape makes the traditional method of forecasting difficult to facilitate understanding of what customers, the community and competition will be like in the future. They chose scenarios as a tool to cope with greater uncertainties as they promote a "learning" rather than "knowing" attitude towards the future. Strategic thinking based on scenarios allowing consideration of a set of possibilities, which can be more suitable to dealing with unpredictable environments. GM's resulting scenarios regarding transportation and technology covering the next few decades fell into four story lines: "Technology substitutes for travel"; "Smart cars in a smart world"; "Social breakdown" and "Mobility for the masses", which were developed based on combinations of the key factors. Each scenario was then analyzed in terms of possible outcomes for GM, in terms of number of long-term customers and average share of wallet, etc. This has provided them with a plausible picture of what outcomes will result from certain paths of action and technological and social developments.

Although scenarios alone may not form a sufficiently robust tool for making business strategies, and quantitative market research has its place, the scenario-based approach allows a systematic way to deal with the uncertainties the future holds. We will not be able to predict the future using any methods, but we can be better prepared by learning what today's action is likely to mean in tomorrow's conditions. The language industry could benefit from similar scenario-based planning. This will require the driving forces behind the emerging significant changes to be identified first. Such forces for the language industry could, for example, include "the rate of usage of controlled language" or "the extent to which English is used as a lingua franca of the Internet", etc. Once the main drivers are identified, a number of scenarios can be drawn to illustrate the alternative futures available to the language industry, depending on the extent to which each driver is present. This will provide a common context in which industry players can discuss beneficial future strategies which suit their resources and targets.

Weaving stories could prove to be a surprisingly beneficial and innovative tool to help gain insight into the future.

References

Barabba, V.P. (1998). Revisiting Plato's Cave: Business Design in an Age of Uncertainty. In Tapscott, D., Lowy, A. & Ticoll, D [Eds.], Blueprint to the Digital Economy (pp 34-59). New York: McGraw-Hill.

Fry, D. (1998). Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics?: Language industry data and its strengths and weaknesses (pp. 10-15). In LISA newsletter 7 (3).

Kahn, H. & Wiener, A. (1967). The Year 2000. New York: Macmillan.

Schäler, R. (1998). Software localization: facts, figures, trends. In Multilingual computing and technology (pp. 35-36). No.23, 10 (1).

Schwarz, P. (1996). The Art of the Long View. ABN (Australian Business Network) publishing.

Schwarz, B., Svedin, U., & Wittrock, B. (1982). Methods in future studies: problems and applications. Colorado: Westview Press.

The Futures Group (1994). Scenarios. A publication of United Nations Development Program's African Futures Project in collaboration with the United Nations United Nations University's Millennium Project Feasibility Study—Phase II.

Van der Heijden, Kees. (1996). Scenarios: The art of strategic conversation. Chester: John Wiley & Sons.